Bitcoin is back above $107,000 this week, after dipping dangerously close to $98,000 just days ago. The correction shook the market and tested the nerves of even the strongest hands. Yet, from a technical perspective, the bullish structure remains intact. Higher-timeframe charts still favor the uptrend — though it was uncomfortably close to breaking.
For traders, this bounce feels like a sigh of relief. The bears seem exhausted, and the market is slowly regaining confidence.
Personal Trade & Sentiment
I’ve been long since $103,800, with my stop-loss now moved to break-even. My target is $117,000, though that might change if price action starts looking weak.
Yesterday, I found myself on a boat in Thailand with one of the most iconic Bitcoin bulls — Didi Taihuttu, the man who famously sold everything for BTC back in 2017. His 100% conviction is contagious. Talking to someone who’s literally bet his life on Bitcoin reminds you why this market still has magic.
The Catalyst: Tariff Dividend Sparks Market Reaction
President Donald Trump’s renewed talk of a $400-billion “tariff dividend” sent ripples across all markets. The plan, which proposes direct cash payments of around $2,000 to most American adults, immediately sparked speculation about liquidity inflows into risk assets — crypto included.
Bitcoin reacted fast. Within hours, BTC climbed above $106,000 and hasn’t looked back since. Traders saw the announcement as a potential stimulus echo: more cash for consumers often means more liquidity chasing returns.
While the plan’s legal and fiscal mechanics are still unclear, sentiment got a serious jolt. Altcoins (like ZEC) joined the rally, and trading volumes jumped across exchanges.
Related: DEX volume sparking to record highs.
ETF Outflows and Market Reset
Last week, Bitcoin ETF outflows totaled $932 million, continuing the pattern from the previous week’s $946 million. These numbers reflect fading risk appetite after the October crash that wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions.
Despite that, the sell pressure appears to be waning. Institutional flows are stabilizing, and spot demand is quietly rebuilding. Analysts note that maintaining the $100K level could keep the three-year bull market structure intact — even if the pace of future gains slows.
Analysts Still Bullish for Year-End
Wall Street’s outlook remains surprisingly optimistic. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee still targets Bitcoin between $150,000 and $200,000, while Galaxy Research projects a conservative $120,000 by year-end. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood trimmed her 2030 target from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, noting Bitcoin’s growing role as a macro asset in a maturing ecosystem.
The consensus? October’s wipeout likely marked a mid-cycle reset, not the end of the bull. If Bitcoin can close November strong — ideally setting a new all-time high before Thanksgiving — momentum could carry deep into Q1 2026.
Technical Outlook: Still in Bull Territory
From a charting perspective, Bitcoin continues to hold its key support zone near $99,200. A daily close above $107K confirms renewed momentum, while breaking $110K could trigger a run toward $117K — my personal target.
The RSI has reset from overbought levels, and funding rates have normalized, suggesting the market has cooled enough to rally sustainably. Bulls just need to defend that $100K line a little longer.
Why This Recovery Matters
Confidence is everything in crypto. The past month tested that belief system. Between ETF outflows, geopolitical tension, and a macro rollercoaster, fear nearly flipped the narrative. Yet here we are — BTC recovering, sentiment shifting, and analysts revising their forecasts upward again.
It’s a reminder that volatility cuts both ways. When liquidity returns, Bitcoin tends to move fast, and traders who survive the shakeouts are often rewarded.
Support Our Work
If you found this helpful, consider signing up on BloFin (Non-KYC) or Bybit using our referral links. Your support keeps this content free and flowing.
Final Thoughts: Hold the Line, Bulls
Bitcoin’s climb from $98K to $107K might seem modest in percentage terms, but psychologically, it’s a big win. The bears failed to break the structure, and bulls are regaining control.
My position remains open — long from $103K, stop at break-even, target $117K. The goal? A new all-time high before Thanksgiving.
If we get that, the market narrative flips entirely, and the late-year melt-up could be wild.
If you enjoyed this blog, check out our guide on Risk Management.
As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus below on Blofin. See you next time!
