Timed perfectly with the first US-based TikTok Awards, TikTok signed an agreement to divest US TikTok. This deal, reportedly valued at around $14B, will divest US TikTok to a joint venture of primarily American investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX (UAE) who will own about 45%. The remaining stake stays with existing investors of ByteDance and ByteDance itself. This compromise gives US more control, while allowing ByteDance to remain involved. Last year, Forrester predicted that TikTok would not be banned or divest in 2025, and it looks like we just made it. This agreement is set to close on Jan 22, 2026. But this isn’t a “done deal” yet – it still requires approval from US regulators and the Chinese government.
TikTok has survived more political whiplash than any other platform—dodging executive orders, legal battles, and ban deadlines. Its staying power proves just how embedded it is in US culture. In our February Consumer Pulse survey, less than half (43%) of US TikTok users told us it would be a positive outcome if Larry Ellison (Oracle’s Chairmen) bought TikTok, but 67% also said that regardless of who buys TikTok, they plan to continue to use the app. I think it’s safe to say that this assumes the app stays the same.
The Algorithm Experience Will Be Different
This new US joint venture will be responsible for securing the algorithm, protecting US data, moderating content, and software assurance. One of the most important questions in this deal has always been whether the algorithm would come with the sale, and the answer is “yes and no.” This US joint venture will have to retrain the recommendation algorithm on US user data — meaning the experience will feel different, and users will very likely notice.
The algorithm is the heartbeat of TikTok’s addictive experience, and the jury’s out on whether a US-only TikTok will replicate the magic of the original experience. If it doesn’t, creators and consumers may flock to YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels.
Brands And Creators Should Be Skeptical
It’s possible that this new TikTok will be even better than the original, but that’s not a guarantee. At this point there are more questions than answers. Here’s what you should be asking:
- How will TikTok manage ads for global vs US TikTok?
- Will the ads on US TikTok be more or less effective than before?
- How will content reach change? And what does that mean for how creators structure brand deals?
- How will globally minded creators and brands manage their content across the apps?
- Will these new owners tip the algorithm in their own favor?
- How will they manage content moderation?
Advertisers and creators should be wary about TikTok’s effectiveness in 2026. Start diversifying your bets (if you haven’t already) to other channels like YouTube, Instagram, and even podcasting.
Forrester clients: Let’s chat more about your TikTok and creator marketing strategy via a Forrester guidance session.